Tom SpencerAs the coronavirus continues to spread, the combined health and economic impacts are likely to be truly massive. Where did it all go wrong? Since this is not a medical sciences blog, we will leave the health related issues to the relevant experts. However, that leaves plenty of topics to examine on the economic front. […]
Frankfurt is one of the oldest business centres in the world. From at least Roman times, the low-lying city, bifurcated by the welcoming River Main, has been a hotspot for global endeavours that changed the nature of many industries – including but not limited to banking. Mayer Rothschild, a courtier to the German king of […]
Six months ago I predicted that Trump would most likely win the US election. The official opinion polls told the opposite story, that Hillary was the preferred candidate, but my reading of the situation was different. It was mid-July, and I was attending a talk given by Elizabeth Economy, Director for Asia Studies at the […]
When news broke in late October that some of London’s largest banks were investing in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies in general got another boost. According to reports, however, this latest move to embrace Bitcoin was not a positive embrace of the digital currency per se, but rather a move to stockpile Bitcoin to fend off denial of […]
Since 1972, Britain has been part of the European continent. I remember the opening very well. I was a kid, living in London. The new openness meant we could afford oranges from Spain. Every week, an old French farmer would also peddle through London with strings of onions hanging from his bicycle. I thought the […]
As Oxford’s poet-philosopher Ludovic Phalippou once put it, “we are all just levered monkeys!” What did Phalippou mean by this comment? Well, as I explained to my corporate finance students this week, the use of debt by companies is called “financial leverage”. That is, debt acts like a lever which can magnify the size of both gains […]
This past Friday marked the 40th anniversary of the passing of Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People’s Republic of China. Most notable here in China was the absence of discussion or commentary. This is perhaps understandable since it is Chinese government policy to celebrate past leaders’ birthdays rather than the anniversary of their […]
Cheap money should help to stimulate the world economy, but is it working? Following the leave campaign winning the Brexit referendum, which will see the UK leave the EU two years after the Prime Minister notifies the European Council of its intention to do so, there was much fear about what this would mean for the strength of […]
If I were a betting man, at this stage my money would be on Trump to win the American presidential election. This is not an endorsement, or a show of support of any kind. I think a Trump victory would be a horrible outcome. So, why do I think Trump has more than a 50/50 chance? And what […]
China comes up for criticism in modern times for stealing software technology from the West. Software is a language (or a set of languages) which can be used to make computer hardware do marvelous things, and because software is easy to copy (or reverse engineer), it’s easy to steal. But if there is software stealing going on in China and elsewhere, […]
On Thursday 23rd of June, the British people voted by a majority of 52% to 48% to leave the EU. This is a monumental event, and it is worth trying to piece together what happened, and what some of the implications might be. The voter turnout was strong with around 72% of voters casting a ballot. However, the results […]
Are you trying to build a work environment that is more sanitised or more sanitary? There is a difference. A sanitised work environment is generally inoffensive, and is designed to satisfy the strict (and habitually self-serving) requirements of the HR checklist. A sanitary work environment, on the other hand, is one that’s designed to be favourable for the health and proper functioning of […]
When things go badly, the optimist is likely to respond with a reference to forces outside her control, “our competitors got lucky this time!” When things go well, the pessimist is likely to respond in a similar way, “I got lucky this time!” In both situations the person is making a call to destiny. The optimist believes that things will go well […]
I am currently living in Beijing, lecturing strategy and finance courses to undergraduates. One observation I’ve made is that the people here are good at identifying opportunities for profit. And I use the word profit not in a financial sense, but with the broader meaning of the French verb profiter, which means “to make the most advantage of”. This […]
The wonderful thing about financial markets is that they help to get funds from people who have them to people who have a productive use for them. In other words, they help to make things more efficient by enabling money to be put to good use. The problem with financial markets, though, is that more […]
Not enough, or more than you need. It’s generally one, or the other. Are you working for the money, with grand plans for what you will do when you one day finally have “enough”? Or are you just happy to be here, every day, because you can’t believe they are paying you to do what […]
This past week there has been fear circulating among founders and private investors who hold stock in certain early stage startups that have achieved sky-high valuations. Why the fear? The startups in question are privately held, meaning that the founders and early stage investors own shares in the companies, but shares have not yet been offered for sale […]
Harvard Business School Professor Michael Porter argued back in 1985 that there are three generic strategies that an organisation can follow to achieve above average performance. You can operate at low cost, provide distinct value to customers, or focus on doing one of these things while targeting a specific niche in the market. The unfortunate fallacy that Porter introduced is […]
Back in September last year, the Wall Street Journal wrote an article about how low oil prices could lead to a global recession. An article by the Guardian last Friday repeated the sentiment with a suggestion that low oil prices could hurt the stock market. Look out, Chicken Little, the sky is falling! The doom and gloom argument appears […]
Builders intuitively know that if you are building a house then you need both bricks and mortar, and they need to be arranged in a certain way in order to construct a safe, functional and attractive residence. The bricks provide strength, the mortar holds it all together, and the architect’s plan ensures that they are arranged in […]
Many people are afraid to fail. Terrified of flunking a test, getting fired, having their heart broken, or being laughed at. Loss is painful, yes, it truly can be. The problem with this way of experiencing life, though, is that it represents fixed thinking. A belief that things can stay the same and a desire to preserve the way things were. […]
There are different kinds of capital that individuals and organisations use to pursue their goals and deliver value. Employees usually trade human capital (their individual talent, skills, knowledge and efforts) and intellectual capital (their thoughts and ideas) in exchange for financial capital (money). Effort, ideas and money are not, however, the only forms of capital that […]
Business owners know that they can’t attract customers if those customers don’t know that they exist. That is why they rent buildings in high traffic areas and pay large sums to place ads where people are likely to see them. There are many ways that companies can get the word out, and with all the […]
This is a guest post from Sarah Smith. How do people decide which online university will meet their needs? What drives a student to choose one option over another — especially when both schools have little name recognition? No one decides on an online education based on a single advertisement or one aspect of a […]
You don’t always need proof that a threat exists in order to take action. You don’t need to know everything, you just need to know enough to get moving. In behavioural economics the common human bias towards doing nothing is called the “status quo bias”. Faced with a difficult decision in the midst of uncertainty, […]
I recently bought a coffee from Quarter Horse Coffee, my new favorite Oxford coffee house. Not having exactly the right change, I asked the friendly bearded hipster behind the counter whether they accept card payments. He told me that they accept payment by card, but they charge a 20P surcharge for amounts under five pounds. I […]
(Source: Flickr) Whether it be pictures of cats on the Internet, a phone call from a friend asking you to come to the movies tonight, or a university assignment due tomorrow morning, we all suffer from it. We tend to perceive immediate emotions much more intensely when making decisions about what we should do right […]
When a baby is born it knows nothing about the world. So little, in fact, that it has no concept of self. The baby, its mother, and the world are one. As the baby grows it discovers the world for the first time. Hands, feet, pee, poop, mumma and dada. The baby’s mother whispers “you […]
Phil Libin, CEO of Evernote, doesn’t like the word “cannibalisation” because it’s zero sum. It implies that you’re the guy doing the eating or being eaten. He says being in business is not like playing a sport or being in warfare. It’s more like music, it’s more like art. It’s not a zero sum game. […]
Economists love to talk about “scarcity” and the fact that we live in a world of limited resources. However, in the digital world this need not necessarily be the case. Phil Libin of Evernote is of the view that if you’re in a traditional industry like minerals extraction or transportation, then customers will either go […]
Big data (combined with data analytics and machine learning) offers exciting opportunities to decipher patterns and solve complex problems more quickly and cheaply than ever before, but it also has the potential to infringe the privacy of individual users. Looking at a company like Evernote, which uses a freemium business model to help tens of millions of people be more productive […]
(Source: Flickr) We have seen this week some heated negotiations between Greece and its European lenders. Here are some of the issues facing Greece at the moment: Technical default: Greece is due to repay €1.6bn (£1.2bn) to the IMF at the end of June. On Wednesday, Athens announced that it is stony broke and will not be able to pay […]
Crowdfunding is a growing trend that allows individuals, non-profits and start-ups to fund projects by raising money from the crowd using an online platform. Last week I attended a crowdfunding discussion at the Oxford Launchpad with Jonathan May, CEO of Hubbub, and representatives from the development offices of various Oxford colleges. Asking for donations from alumni is one […]
Price and value, there is a difference. Price is what you pay for something; the number of dollars that you need to part with in order to obtain it. Value is what you receive; the positive feelings or practical utility that the object or the experience imparts. I recently had my birthday, and I was delighted to […]
(Source: Virgin.com) It was very sad to hear about the eight people executed by firing squad by the Indonesian government, including two Australians. The death penalty is cruel. People who traffic drugs may be desperate, reckless, foolish, greedy or a combination of all of these things, but they are still people. And killing people is barbaric. The […]
(Source: Flickr) Anchoring is a common psychological effect whereby people tend to rely too heavily on readily available information (the “anchor”) when making decisions involving uncertainty. To illustrate the point, let me ask you two questions: Is the population of Argentina greater or less than 80 million? How many people do you think live in Argentina? Write […]
(Source: Flickr) Traditional strategic thinking, the kind championed by HBS Prof Mikey Porter, says that real economic value is only created when a company can sell a product or service to customers at a price that exceeds the cost of producing it. In other words, companies are entities that sell products or services, and strategic thinking is […]
Where do you place value? (Source: Flickr) ONE of our heroes, New York based consultant Alan Weiss, has a unique perspective on wealth. He regularly shares the view that “wealth is discretionary time”. The reason his approach to wealth is so striking is that most people, at least those of us living in Western market based economies, tend […]
WILLIAM Black, former bank regulator and Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, witnessed first hand how banks took control of the banking system to commit fraud on a colossal scale. In his TED Talk from last year (watch it below) Black talks about “liar’s loans” and other tactics that the banks used to bring […]
Is Booze Muhkidney hiring?
But what about when nobody is watching? GENEROSITY is the act of giving more than we expect of you. You are probably familiar with the most common form of generosity – public generosity. Giving more when people can see it. The public benefactor to a prestigious university foundation; the celebrity who campaigns to fight poverty; or the wealthy men on a quest to […]
You just have to be interested Interested in other people. Interested in what you can do for them. Interested in improving your approach. Interested in finding a new way forward. Interested in what’s next.
Australian Senator David Leyonhjelm makes an impactful speech about the risks of being cavalier with other people’s money, of valuing everything and understanding nothing about the cost
In an infinite channel world, not-for-profit may just be the new normal We were recently invited to attend Professor Donnie Maclurcan’s talk in Islington, London entitled “Not-for-profit enterprise will be at the heart of the global economy by 2050”. We were unfortunately unable to attend Donnie’s talk, and haven’t yet read the book, but on first […]
Subtitle: Get over yourself. Great business ideas are usually created by others. Are you ready to receive them? (Source: Flickr) IF you counsel a young child (or grown adult) on the merits of humility, we will not raise an eyebrow. Humility is an admirable quality and has an endearing appeal, much like a puppy dog or a baby in a bassinet. We approve, and quickly […]
Holding a grudge is like drinking poison, and wishing your enemies would die. Let it go, keep moving, and retain your freedom. Or, as Oscar Wilde put it, “always forgive your enemies, nothing annoys them so much.”
If you were playing Monopoly, Quantitative Easing would be the equivalent of helping yourself to a $100 note every time you rolled the dice and never having to pay it back (Source: Flickr) CENTRAL banks continue to finance government spending by easing monetary policy in order to help economies get back to “potential output”. (It […]
Understanding the mechanism that underlies intelligence could have big implications for economics, business and finance. The below TED Talk is worth watching.
How can you get what you ask for? How can you significantly increase the chances that another person will say yes to your request? ROBERT Cialdini, best-selling author of Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, gives an insightful talk on how you can persuade people to do what you want. As a tenured professor, Cialdini jokes […]
“Everything is relative in this world, where change alone endures” (Leon Trotsky) IF you were offered the chance to win or lose $100 on the basis of a coin flip, would you take the bet? If you are like most people, you would probably decline the wager. Even though the gamble offers an even chance […]